From the President's Desk

I recently ice-skated my rig over to Eugene, Oregon to attend an Oregon Bankers Association conference. There aren’t many of us left; Community Bank is one of only 15 banks still chartered in the State of Oregon. I pointed out to the folks running the show that based on the current rate of banker-attrition, we could probably save everyone a lot of time and money if we just hold the conference in the back room of a Denny’s somewhere. They were not amused.

A conference full of bankers is exactly as fun as it sounds. The agenda is generally chock full of topics like “The Future of Debit Cards and Faster Payments”, and “The Common Pitfalls of Data and System Integrations”, and of course everyone’s favorite, “A Frank and Candid Discussion with your Bank Regulator”. Usually wedged somewhere between these edge-of-your-seat presentations, is a timeslot reserved for an economist. The economist’s role is to rehash every economic phenomenon and obscure data point from the prior year, then conjure up a fresh set of predictions and economic forecasts for the year to come.

During the Q&A portion of this year’s economic presentation, folks from the crowd asked several questions: Will the economy fall into a recession in 2023? What will happen when the war in Ukraine ends? Has inflation peaked?  What will be the impact of the 2022 elections going forward? What will the price of fuel look like next year?  How much higher will interest rates go? Will China invade Taiwan? Will the stock markets go up or down? The economist offered up answers to as many of these as time allowed, then it was off to lunch. By the way, Heaven help the poor soul scheduled to present to the snoozing audience during the after-lunch sessions.     

On the trip home, I had plenty of time to ponder all these questions between periods of whitening my knuckles on the steering wheel. By the time I coasted past Troutdale it occurred to me that nobody in that room (myself included) had any idea what was really going to happen, when it was going to happen, and what the potential outcomes would be. While there presumably weren’t any authorities on foreign or political affairs in the assembled group, there were certainly quite a few folks well versed in finance and economics sitting in the room. Nevertheless, even the opinions conveyed on these matters didn’t seem any more compelling than those of others expressed. And this was a room full of bankers - finance is what we do!

Everyone is bombarded with forecasts and predictions every day, yet very few of them are of any actual use, much less consistently reliable over time. Consider the talking heads on a news channel confidently telling us when inflation will subside, or the guys picking the winners during an NFL pregame show, or just the 10-day weather forecast. In each of these scenarios, a simple coin-flip would produce similar results. Add the element of time, and I suspect the coin may have a superior track record. One of the best examples of this in recent times is the forecasting of interest rates. Roll back the calendar to September 2021. At that time, a market poll of leading economists, as well as members of the Federal Reserve, predicted that interest rates would increase by about 25 basis points during 2022. What actually happened? Interest rates skyrocketed by 425 basis points during the year. Not only is that a big miss by alleged market experts, but it’s also a major whiff by the Federal Reserve – the governing body responsible for moving the interest rates.

The problem is the future is unknowable. Therefore, assumptions based on what may or may not happen have to be made in order to formulate even the most basic prediction. These assumptions can break down pretty quickly once applied to something as complex as, say, forecasting trends in global inflation. There are just too many factors that must be incorporated into these forecasting exercises to make them remotely coherent.

So, if forecasting is so hard to get right, why is it such a constant part of our lives? Personally, I think it’s because people are uncomfortable saying things like, “I don’t know”, or “I’m not sure”. It’s probably hard to get a paying job as a news anchor, journalist, consultant, or doctor if your reply to every other question is, “beats me”. We’re conditioned to avoid these responses early on in life; imagine how far you’d get in grade school if you answered, “I haven’t the foggiest idea” on all your tests. Admitting that we don’t know something has an exceptionally bad reputation.          

It's a new year, and this is the time when forecasting and predictions frequently occur. If you are planning for the future, where are you getting your information? Have you ever checked back to see how often these sources were correct? Have you figured out which sources you should ignore? The evidence to answer these questions is generally difficult to find and in short supply. Which is curious considering the vast number of people involved in producing it.     

I’ll end with this: not knowing something isn’t a sign of weakness or failure. On the contrary, it’s an excellent opportunity to start developing a stronger decision-making process. The hardest part is admitting it. Mark Twain summed it up best when he said “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”     

Final thought: If you happen to be at a Denny’s and see a room full of bankers in the back, swing over and I’ll spring for your Moons over My Hammy.

Good luck and happy hunting,

Tom Moran
CEO/President

There’s a bit of a process that goes into the creation of these messages. It all generally starts with Morgan Jones, our Marketing Manager. I’ll be sitting here at work minding my own business, when she suddenly pops up out of nowhere to inform me that my homework (that is, this letter) is due in a couple weeks. I’ll usually retort with something to the effect of, “that can’t be possible, I just wrote one”. To which she will politely point out that it’s been months since I turned in my last assignment. I’ve always suspected that the actual deadline is much later than the one I’m provided. However, she knows it takes me longer than it should to put this thing together, so I’m kept on a pretty short leash. This little routine got me thinking about the value of time, more specifically the concept of the time value of money. I really do need to find a hobby.

The concept of time value of money (TVM) is the idea that a sum of money is worth more in the present than that same amount of money will be at some future date. This financial principle relies on the assumption that money held right now can be spent or invested: purchasing something should result in immediate gratification and investing it will hopefully result in a larger amount of money later. Regarding that second point, future money also contains the additional risk that it never materializes for whatever reason (i.e. a bird in the hand). Time value of money further implies that folks will expect to be compensated when they lose the immediate use of their money or when they lock it up for some period of time. Purchasing a home provides shelter, but also the possibility of wealth in the form of value appreciation over the long term. People invest in stocks, bonds, or certificates of deposits with the hope that committing capital now will grow their original investment later. Whether we consciously know it or not, we use the TVM principle to evaluate and compare a wide range of opportunities every day.

Recently this fundamental concept has been turned on its head. Two factors are responsible: widespread inflation and the threat of economic recession. Since everyone has already read my previous President’s Message on the impact of inflation on hot dog prices, I won’t delve too deep on that topic here. Suffice to say, elevated levels of inflation will eat away at the value of money and its purchasing power, even if invested. This means the dollar you have in your pocket could be worth less in the future because it won’t buy as much as it does today. The second factor influences TVM more from the threat of a recession, than an actual recession. I’ll try to explain this (and consequently, try not to put everyone reading this to sleep) using the United States Treasury yield curve. When folks buy U.S. Treasury securities, they essentially provide a loan to the government that it is obligated to pay back. These ‘loans’ range in maturity from a month all the way out to 30 years. Recent treasury rates and corresponding maturities look something like this:      

Based on TVM, the 10-year treasury rate should not be less than the 1-year rate, but it is. How can this be? The answer is because both the Federal Reserve and market participants who invest in treasuries have made it so. The Federal Reserve influences the shorter part of the curve by increasing (or lowering) short-term interest rates. As I’m sure most folks have noticed, there’s been quite a few rate increases of late, with the anticipation of more to come. The broader investing community has much more influence over the long end of the yield curve. If these market players become worried about potentially negative economic conditions (ex. a recession), they will invest heavily in the longer end, betting that the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates to re-stimulate the economy. So, the Federal Reserve increasing short-term interest rates to fight inflation, coupled with the market pushing down long-term rates in anticipation of a recession, has all but eliminated TVM in the current economic environment.  

There’s no punchline here. The purpose of this message was to work through what is a widely embraced financial concept and point out that we’re currently living in a time where it’s broken down. I wish I had a better crystal ball to predict what will happen next, but I’ll borrow a quote from economist J.K. Galbraith in that regard, “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know”. Quoting dead economists? For the sake of the handful of folks who stayed awake long enough to get to the end of this, I’ll wrap it up.

Final Thought: You know things have gotten weird when your acupuncturist has an opinion about Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

Final Final Thought: Does acupuncture actually work? Heck if I know. Ask me in a few months.

Good luck and happy hunting,

Tom Moran
CEO & President

As I write this, the talking heads on a business news channel are informing viewers that the rate of inflation in the United States jumped up to over 9% during the month of June. This marks the highest pace for inflation going all the way back to November of 1981. Simply defined, inflation is a broad increase in the price of goods and services in an economy, accompanied with a fall in the purchasing value of money. It's hard to ignore, because it's everywhere you turn: fuel, diapers, furniture, microchips, even hot dogs. The eye-watering prices at the pump are probably most evident, but I want to dig a little deeper into the pricing behavior on that last item - hotdogs. It's a topic that's a bit more on our minds around here at Community Bank, because after a 2-year hiatus we're dusting off the grills and getting the Customer Appreciation Barbeques at our branches back on track (click here for BBQ dates).

About hotdogs and inflation. It’s hard to believe, but I’ve worked for Community Bank for a little over 20 years now. This got me thinking - what was the cost of a hotdog when I started at the Bank in 2001 compared to 2022? Luckily there's this little contraption called the Internet where the answer to this most critical question resides. According to Mr. Google, the average price for hotdogs in 2001 was $2.27 per lb. Fast forward to 2022, and it’s now $5.22 per lb. That's an increase of 130%! To throw a few more numbers at it, competitive eater (yes, that’s a job) Joey Chestnut recently won the 2022 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest by eating 63 hot dogs in 10 minutes. At 10 hot dogs per pound, that works out to a cost of $32.88 in 2022, versus $14.30 in 2001. Imagine if he showed up and did this at all 10 of our Customer Appreciation BBQ's. Consequently, he won't be getting an invite.

Many folks have little experience in facing the challenges created by elevated levels of inflation. Afterall, the country hasn’t experienced this in 40 years. While it impacts everyone differently, here are some general recommendations that will hopefully help take the edge off. 

First, put together a budget. For several of our customers, this can be a difficult exercise, and an even harder one to stick to once it’s completed. Nevertheless, in an economic environment where costs are skyrocketing, a budget can be crucial in identifying where expenses are increasing, and to support spending decisions. If you need help getting started, check out our new My Financial Toolkit service that we offer through our online banking platform. Alternatively, just give us a call and we’d be happy to assist.

Second, try to pay-off your floating (variable) debt. What in the world? Isn’t Community Bank in the business of lending money? Of course we are, but we’re also in the business of helping our customers make smart financial decisions. If you haven’t noticed, interest rates have gone up. Fast. That means many debt instruments tied to a variable rate – credit cards, HELOC’s, lines of credit – are much more expensive now than they were even a recently as a few months ago. Again, everyone’s financial situation is different, but prioritizing the payment of your variable debt over your debt with fixed interest rates should get a hard look right now.

Lastly, maintain a good old-fashioned savings account. Honestly, this is a good idea even during non-inflationary times. I know, easier said than done in an environment where inflation leaves a painful mark. However, setting aside money now will help to cushion any future unexpected expenses or other painful financial situations.    

This country will likely feel the effects of inflation for a good long while. With that said, following a few of these time-tested practices will help you navigate through it. Hope to see everyone (except Joey Chestnut) at our BBQ's this summer. The rainy weather appears to be over for now - get out there and enjoy some sunshine.

Tom Moran

CEO/President